Wednesday, January 2, 2013

What North Korea's Rocket Launch Means — And What It Doesn't | Essentials

What North Korea's Rocket Launch Means — And What It Doesn't

Pyongyang Flower Expo
Pyongyang Flower Expo by Joseph A Ferris III
License (according to Flickr): Attribution License
Excerpt:

North Korea's successful rocket launch may conjure up visions of nuclear missiles in the hands of one of the planet's least predictable regimes. But building a satellite launch vehicle doesn't directly translate into an ability to rain warheads on distant enemies. Pyongyang still faces major obstacles before it can claim to possess reliable, nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting its Asian neighborhood and much of the Pacific basin, including Alaska. By launching the three-stage Unha-3 rocket into orbit Wednesday, "the North has crossed a major threshold in terms of mating an ICBM with a nuclear weapon," Victor Cha, who holds the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, writes in a Q&A for the think tank. Cha says the Unha-3 has a range of possibly 4,000 to 6,000 kilometers.

Keywords:

North Korea ICBM nuclear warhead North Koreans International Studies stationary target liquid fuel ICBM warhead three-stage Unha-3 rocket successful rocket launch satellite launch vehicle Western United States North Korean abilities Arms Control Association North Korean leader Security Studies Program Liquid fuel rockets ICBM stage Cha useful warhead nuclear missiles ballistic missiles Victor Cha Korea Chair major obstacles nuclear weapon distant enemies Asian neighborhood Pacific basin Thielmann nuclear end major threshold nuclear device striking distance larger obstacle Jim Walsh intense heat senior fellow fuel problem Massachusetts Institute Greg Thielmann international security solid fuel warheads research associate Thielmann notes reliable mode Liquid-fueled rockets Unha-3 type technological thresholds

People:

Victor Cha

Overall Sentiment: 0.0207873

Relevance: 0.572259

Disambiguation: References:

Greg Thielmann

Overall Sentiment: 0.343463

Relevance: 0.52878

Jim Walsh

Overall Sentiment: 0.364084

Relevance: 0.463015

SentimentQuote
0.255964"They are not there on the nuclear end and would have to have many more tests to have enough confidence that they have a reliable mode of delivery," says Jim Walsh, ...
-0.337193"They are not there on the nuclear end and would have to have many more tests to have enough confidence that they have a reliable mode of delivery," says Jim Walsh, an expert in international security and a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Security Studies Program. "You need reliability. If you shoot one, you better be pretty confident it is not going to malfunction, hit your own territory and explode."
0.0494689Jim Walsh, an expert in international security and a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Security Studies Program. "You need reliability. If you shoot one, you better be pretty confident it is not going to malfunction, hit your own territory and explode." Thielmann agrees that producing a useful warhead is fraught with difficulty. "Based on the testing we've seen and some other assumptions about North Korean abilities, we don't think they're ready to arm an ICBM with a nuclear warhead yet even if they had an ICBM, which they don't yet."
0.198416Walsh concurs: "Liquid-fueled rockets sitting on the ground for hours are seen as being vulnerable to strike."
Sentiment Stats:
  • Number of Quotes: 4
  • Aggregate Sentiment: 0.1666559
  • Mean: 0.041663975
  • Standard Deviation: 1.7320508075689

Kim Jong Un

Overall Sentiment: -0.171893

Relevance: 0.345739

Key:

  • Aggregate Sentiment is meant to be an indicator of an individual's overall sentiment.
  • The Mean is meant to be an indicator of an individual's average comment sentiment.
  • The Standard Deviation, when there are enough quotes, will indicate an individual's consistency of sentiment (i.e. a Standard Deviation of 0 would mean they were very consistent in their sentiment and 1 would mean they were very inconsistent).

Note that quote stats are likely to be meaningless beyond the aggregate score due to the tiny sample size. However, they are always provided just in case you find something useful there.

Additional Info:

Organization: Center for Strategic and International Studies

Overall Sentiment: -0.228011

Relevance: 0.558055

Organization: Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Security Studies

Overall Sentiment: 0

Relevance: 0.362664

Organization: Arms Control Association

Overall Sentiment: 0

Relevance: 0.311973

FieldTerminology: intercontinental ballistic missiles

Overall Sentiment: 0.253348

Relevance: 0.425842

FieldTerminology: nuclear device

Overall Sentiment: -0.101973

Relevance: 0.41191

Country: North Korea

Overall Sentiment: 0.123564

Relevance: 0.926586

Country: United States

Overall Sentiment: 0

Relevance: 0.448565

Disambiguation: Location | Region | AdministrativeDivision | GovernmentalJurisdiction | FilmEditorReferences:

Country: Korea

Overall Sentiment: 0

Relevance: 0.424801

City: Pyongyang

Overall Sentiment: 0

Relevance: 0.417573

Disambiguation: AdministrativeDivisionReferences:

StateOrCounty: Alaska

Overall Sentiment: -0.0308246

Relevance: 0.364544

Disambiguation: Location | PoliticalDistrict | AdministrativeDivision | GovernmentalJurisdiction | USStateReferences:

StateOrCounty: Washington

Overall Sentiment: -0.251722

Relevance: 0.3088

GeographicFeature: Pacific

Overall Sentiment: -0.0999175

Relevance: 0.349568

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